Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Dotcom bust of 2K to barrel bust in 08 - n thereafter.

We are living in interesting times.

Markets are flooded with money but with little value. Dollar is in distress ever after globalisation of economy. Speculation and greed for quick buck has turned the markets into Disney Land, a queer place.

It has become like that rugby match, where all players pounce on the man with the ball and the man slips the ball into the hands of a mate standing off the mess. And soon they all get up n start chasing the new man with the ball.

There are many reasons for this unreasonable behaviour of markets worldwide. I would attribute the current erratic behaviour to following:

- Technology revolution sans Innovation
- Information Technology and human over-reaction to avlb info.
- Demand coming from children of lesser God
- Productivity/ innovation crunch in developed world
- Weak Dollar and financial failure
- speculation and Greed

It is true, there is huge demand for oil today and on the otherside conventional oil wells are drying up. But a repeat of June, 2008 prices in near future is impossible. If dollar does not depreciate much, crude shud breathe in dollar 40-80 range for a while (thanks to speculation & hoarding). Personally, I see it going upto usd75/ bbls and then cooling off during the latter part of the year.

Crude may have a dream run in long term as demand side has unlimited scope to expand, whereas supply is a limited company. However, rules of orthodox economics will prevail and we may see the correction coming on the demand side in terms of alternate energy sources and anti global warming measures.

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