Thursday, November 15, 2007

Oil's Giddy at sight of 100

Going by the financial buzz, Oil the Jack, is not feeling well and secure at close to usd100 and may tumble down any moment. Many investors have taken fresh positions in oil refineries after cutting short their long positions in Crude during the last few days because they think the main beneficiary of this slide would be the downstream companies. During this week many of the indian oil refining equities have registered a huge inflow of funds.

Goldman suchs had already issued 'fatwah' on crude prices end October. We gather following reasons/ indications for their 30-40% recall order.

- Ethanol blending coupled with changing consumer behaviour is putting downward pressure on oil demand also prompting EIA to cut its prediction for fourth-quarter demand growth by 570,000 barrels a day and by 180,000 bpd more for the first quarter.

- Crude heading north (up 50% since May, 2007) while products moving south (abt 10% during the same period) - indication of a bubble.

- Tanker market's plight in the peak trading season.

- November fixture list is cutting a sorry figure at our Indian Crude update, which may well cut into December, if Oil the Jack stays firm at current height.

Suchs, crude at current levels sucks, no doubt. But we guess, volatility is there to stay for sometime. Jack is still not in for a mute submission.


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